For 6 months in a row consumer spending has been down and going even deeper into the negative but for the first time in 6 consecutive months, the price index for January shows a 1% positive gain. Yes, 1% is not much but this is a huge indicator usually a bottom out of the market is near.
Secondly, foreclosure rate were drastically lower in January compared to December, another great indicator of a small incoming turnaround.
We are going to have to monitor this very closely as we could see a market bottom out in mid 2009 and moderate growth towards the later half of 2009. The economic recovery plan will play a heavy weight on this potential turnaround and might be a necessary evil after all.
The lack of info available about the plan itself has left many disappointed but I look at this as a good sign, and look forward to hearing the detail and timing of the disbursement of $800 billion of our tax money.
These small signs are great indicators and will have to be followed closely in February and March, it is typical however that the real estate market picks up a bit in spring and will cause more cash to move through the economy, as well as boost consumer spending which ends up growing consumer confidence.
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February 28th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
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March 1st, 2009 at 5:28 pm
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March 3rd, 2009 at 3:47 pm
Keep working ,great job!
March 28th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
my God, i thought you were going to chip in with some decisive insght at the end there, not leave it with
April 7th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Great site, I’ve just bookmarked it.
April 9th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
An interesting view of the automotive industry. Where do you see the future of the industry, will it ever recover or will there be major casulties?
April 14th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Thanks very much for any help.
April 15th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
Great site, I just love my cars and this is one site I’ll keep coming back to! Thanks
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- Jack
April 29th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
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January 11th, 2010 at 12:32 am
I am interested in hearing your thoughts on how the Chinese economy will affect the U.S. economic outlook.
It has been all over the news that China has been experiencing an economic explosion recently. They have at this point, surpassed Germany as the leading exporter.
With China buying up and stockpiling a number of commodities such as Copper, Iron Ore, and Crude Oil while the Prices are at a low. What affect is this going to play on the U.S. Economy?
January 11th, 2010 at 10:05 pm
I posted many things on foreign economies and how they will play out within the next years, simply look up newer economic outlooks as I posted new ones monthly